New Rail Services on Existing Lines first principles assessment

Why introduce bus fleet management

The impetus for the introduction of effective bus fleet management systems comes from the improvement in bus service performance offered by such systems. The main benefits of which are better customer satisfaction and an improved perception of bus services from the public in general; and to a lesser extent, financial benefits from better fleet utilisation and lower vehicle running costs (more effective maintenance and more economical driving styles). The key benefits are outlined below,

Improvement in customer satisfaction & the perception of the bus by the general public: a) ability to analyse actual running times to produce realistic time tables; b) ability to detect broken down or late running vehicles and introduce replacement vehicles; c) ability to produce real time information for passengers (pre-journey and in-vehicle); d) ability to provide the necessary information for traffic signal controllers (bus priority) and UTC functions to help negate problems caused by congestion.
Data recording of the performance of the driver and vehicles. This results in more economical and safer driving and identifies any problems with the vehicle which allows preventative maintenance as opposed to prescriptive maintenance. Together these can lead to reductions in fuel consumption, vehicle maintenance and insurance premiums (as accident levels are reduced).
Fleet utilisation - better scheduling can lead to better use of the fleet vehicles. This might lead to savings such as reduced vehicle requirements or a reduction in vehicle depreciation.

The exact benefits will all depend upon what systems have been put in place and what the capabilities of those systems are.

Demand impacts

The main demand impacts are likely to result from the improvement in customer satisfaction with the current service and the improvement in the perception of bus from non-users. A more reliable bus service is more likely to retain existing customers, generate additional trips from the same group, whilst at the same time attracting additional ridership from other modes of transport. This is in turn is likely to help reduce externalities (congestion, pollution and accidents).

Responses and situations

Response	Reduction in road traffic	Expected in situations
	-	No impact on car vehicle kms. Worth noting that the improvement in bus service reliability may lead to people making bus journeys setting off later, e.g. reducing the safety margin they build into their journeys.
	-	No impact.
	-	No impact.
		Where bus service reliability is known to have improved, some individuals may reduce their car use through increased bus patronage. However, this will free up road space which may result in induced traffic.
		As non-user's perception of the bus improves some scope for achieving modal shift. Also scope for retaining existing bus customers as their experience of bus improves.
	-	No impact.
	-	No impact

= Weakest possible response, = strongest possible positive response

= Weakest possible negative response, = strongest possible negative response

= No response

Short and long run demand responses

Likely to be a slightly stronger modal shift response if the improvements in bus service can be maintained. The improvements will also be stronger if they can be linked in with real time passenger information, bus priority measures and UTC functions.

Demand responses

Response	1^st year	2-4 years	5 years	10+ years
	-	-	-	-
	-	-	-	-
	-	-	-	-


	-	-	-	-
	-	-	-	-

= Weakest possible response, = strongest possible positive response

= Weakest possible negative response, = strongest possible negative response

= No response

Supply impacts

The introduction of effective bus fleet management systems will see a more reliable supply of buses. In addition more effective fleet utilisation may also see a reduction in the amount of buses required to provide an equivalent service as is the case now.

Financing requirements

The costs of introduction road freight fleet management systems will differ depending upon what features the system has and the size of the bus fleet to be 'wired up'. We were unable to find any exact figures for bus fleet management but were able to find some cost figures for road freight GPS fleet systems taken from the DfT (2003). These suggest that a sophisticated application made up of several pieces of on-board hardware, networked software and integration with third party software would typically cost between £1,500 and £3,000 per vehicle. With straight forward vehicle tracking systems costing around about a £1,000.

Expected impact on key policy objectives

The impacts on key policy objectives will differ according to the features of the fleet management system in place. The assessment is made more complicated if one was to also include additional benefits that might result from linking up a bus fleet management service with real time passenger information functions, bus priority and UTC. If this is the case we would expect the impacts on key policy objectives to be magnified. However, given that this will not be the case for the vast majority of urban areas we have assumed that the assessment on key policy objectives assumes that a free standing fleet management has been implemented.

Objective	Scale of contribution	Comment
		Improved fleet utilisation, reduction in congestion due to modal shift, monitoring of driving style and vehicle performance also bring major benefits.
		Reduction in congestion and improvement in driving style can help make streets more liveable.
		Modal shift will help reduce vehicle kms and so the level of environmental externalities.
		Greater service reliability will result in more reliable journeys for those solely reliant on the bus as a means of transport (and others of course).
		Modal shift will help reduce vehicle kms, which together with improvements in driving style will improve safety.
	-	Improvement in fleet efficiency unlikely to stimulate economic growth.
		Indications are that the potential gains in fleet efficiency are very likely to outweigh implementation and additional operational costs.

Expected impact on problems

Contribution to alleviation of key problems

Problem	Scale of contribution	Comment
Congestion-related delay		Modal shift should benefit other road users who will experience a reduction in traffic and congestion levels.
Congestion-related unreliability		Modal shift should benefit other road users who will experience a reduction in congestion. For bus users they will notice an improvement in service reliability.
Community severance	-	No impact.
Visual intrusion	-	No impact.
Lack of amenity	-	No impact.
Global warming		Reduction in car vehicle kms and improvement in bus driving style will help reduce traffic-related CO₂ emissions.
Local air pollution		Reduction in car vehicle kms and improvement in driving style will help reduce NO_x, particulates and other local pollutants.
Noise		Reduction in car vehicle kms and improvement in driving style will help reduce traffic noise levels.
Reduction of green space	-	No impact.
Damage to environmentally sensitive sites	-	No impact
Poor accessibility for those without a car and those with mobility impairments		Improved bus service relaibility will provide more reliable accessibility.
Disproportionate disadvantaging of particular social or geographic groups	-	No impact.
Number, severity and risk of accidents		Reduction in car vehicle kms, better vehicle maintenance and improvement in driving style will help reduce the number or accidents and their severity.
Suppression of the potential for economic activity in the area	-	Unlikely to help generate overall economic growth.

Expected winners and losers

There will be three main sets of winners as a result of the implementation of bus fleet management. The first will be existing customers who will experience and improvement in the operational performance of bus services, particularly with respect to service reliability. The second will be the bus operators themselves who should see a reduction in fleet operational costs via improvements in scheduling, vehicle maintenance and driving style. The final set of winners will be other road users and pedestrians/residents who will experience a reduction in car vehicle kms and the associated benefits that brings, namely a reduction in congestion and externalities.

Winners

Group	Winners	Comment
Large scale freight and commercial traffic		Likely to experience a reduction in congestion levels so an improvement in operational performance..
Small businesses		Likely to experience an improvement in the reliability and delivery times of freight consignments.
High income car-users		Will tend to benefit from a reduction in congestion levels within urban areas.
People with a low income		Those solely reliant on the bus as a means of transport will benefit from improved reliability.
People with poor access to public transport	-	No impact.
All existing public transport users		Will benefit from a major improvement in bus service, specifically service reliability.
People living adjacent to the area targeted	-	No impact.
People making high value, important journeys		Will tend to benefit from a reduction in congestion levels within urban areas.
The average car user		Will tend to benefit from a reduction in congestion levels within urban areas.

	= weakest possible benefit,		= strongest benefit
	= weakest possible disbenefet,		= strongest possible disbenefit

= neither wins nor loses