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Evidence on Performance Mass Transportation Demonstration Projects in Massachusetts (1962-64) Context Between 1962 and 1964 the Mass Transportation Commission of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts (MTC) conducted a number of mass transit service improvement and fare reduction experiments. The experiments centred around Boston and its inner suburbs, and involved bus operators, other than the Massachusetts Transit Authority (MTA), throughout the states and commuter railroads that served Boston. The bus experiments mostly involved increasing the service frequencies of a number of local bus services, these are reported in Table 1. The rail experiments were carried out on the Boston & Maine Railroad (B&M), the New Haven Railroad (NH), with the New York Central Railroad (NYCR) used as a control. The B&M experiment incorporated three phases, 1. 77% equivalent increase in all services (92% increase in weekday services)
& a 28% equivalent reduction in fares (ranging from 12% to 72%). The NH experiment had 2 phases, 1. Total average service level increased by 42% and fares reduced by
10% on average. Impacts on demand Bus Company Experiments The results in terms of revenue and ridership changes are shown in Table 1. In all but one case they demonstrated positive increases in revenue and ridership. Table 1: Massachusetts Bus Headway Changes and Ridership/Revenue Results
* SMSA US Census Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (1960); na not applicable Source: Adapted from TRB (2003) The implied service elasticities have a wide range, however two thirds of the elasticities appear in the +0.28 to +0.6 range. Rail Experiments The results in terms of revenue and ridership changes are shown in Table 2. The key figures to note in terms of service elasticities are those presented for phase 2 when fares were increased. The increase in patronage was taken by MTC to infer that improvement in service levels were more effective at increasing ridership than were fare reductions. Overall the additional revenues covered the full incremental cost of the experiment. Table 2:Massachusetts Rail Headway Changes and Ridership Results
na not applicable Source: Adapted from TRB (2003) Surveys indicated that the majority of passengers on the commuting trains used to travel by the following modes, own car (63.6%), carpool member (16.9%), and bus (19.5%). Impacts on Supply No cost figures were reported in the TRB public (2003), however the increase in service levels is likely to have resulted in additional costs from the purchasing/leasing of additional vehicles and hiring of additional operating staff. Contribution to Objectives
Frequency and Service Hours Enhancements in Santa Clarita, California Context Santa Clarita is an outlying suburb of Los Angeles in California (U.S.) with a population of around 150,000 that is served by a metrolink commuter rail service and local bus coverage. Between 1992 and 1998 there were significant extensions to public transport service hours and service frequencies. These are outlined below: · 1992 - Saturday services expanded by 3 hours, i.e. larger operating period. · 1992 Weekday service hours expanded by 2 hours, i.e. larger operating period. · 1994/5 New express commuter bus services added. · 1995 Weekday services expanded on three routes. · FY1995/8 30 minute all day headways introduced on 4 routes (including 2 on a weekend) and 15 minute peak headways on tow routes (where FY = financial year). In addition a 90 minute pass was introduced in 1992, fares raised by 33% in 1993, youth passes rose to $15 from $10 in 1996, and Sunday services introduced on about two thirds of local routes. Impacts on demand The increase in both bus miles and bus hours over the five years in question has seen a greater than proportionate rise in ridership. The lack of statistical smoothing of short run anomalies however, means that not much weight can be placed upon the yearly elasticities. More reliance can be placed on the long run elasticities which are +1.14 for bus miles and +1.55 for bus hours. Table 3: Santa Clarita, CA Local Fixed Route Performance and Log Arc Service Elasticities
FY Financial Year: * - Calendar years 1992 (122,949 population) through to 1996 (125,153 population) na not available Source: TRB (2003) Impacts on Supply No cost figures were reported, however the increase in service levels is likely to have resulted in additional costs from the purchasing/leasing of additional vehicles and hiring of additional operating staff. Contribution to Objectives
The Effects of the Withdrawal and Reduction of Rural Bus Services (Oxley, 1982) Context This study examined the effects of the withdrawal and reduction of rural bus services in three areas: 1) North Lincolnshire and South Humberside (Lincolnshire); 2) Northamptonshire, and; 3) Shropshire. The first two areas experienced a reduction to what were already very limited services (e.g. two or three services a week in either direction), whilst the third area saw drastic reductions with the existing hourly headway service being replaced with two daily services each way. The study identified, six to eight weeks before the service changes were implemented, those people who would be affected. They were subjected to an on-bus survey and then, those who were willing, to a household interview and a seven day travel diary. Within six weeks of the bus service changes, those respondents who had participated in the before survey were asked to fill in another questionnaire and keep a seven day travel diary to identify any changes in their travel behaviour. Finally, 12 months after the bus service changes the same respondents were asked to fill in a further questionnaire and keep a further seven day travel diary. Despite a fall-off in willing participants the number of respondents who co-operated with the 12 month interviews/travel diaries numbered 153 (for all areas). Impacts on demand The change in overall trips rates is recorded in Table 1. In the cases of Lincolnshire & Northamptonshire the level of trip making after the service changes is more or less maintained at the same rates as the before situation. The Shropshire figures are much different, with a 17% fall in trips just after the change in service levels, that became a 19% fall in the long term after situation. By and large those journeys considered essential (work, school and medical) were still made, whilst those trips that were largely of a social nature were cut back, which in Shropshire accounted for 60% of all the lost trips. Table 1: Bus Trips Per Person Per Week
*The staggered changes in Lincolnshire meant that there was only one after survey, mounted 8 weeks after the final service changes (some 12 months after the before household survey). Source: Oxley (1982) In terms of modal split the percentage of trips carried out by carriage bus has fallen by around 40% in both Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, and by 56% in Shropshire (table 2). In Northamptonshire other bus use rose substantially but this reflects the provision of a school bus into and out of Kettering. Substitution of trips seems to have occurred between the following modes, walking (Northampshire), cycling (Lincolnshire) and car (Shropshire). Table 2: Comparison of Modal Split
*The staggered changes in Lincolnshire meant that there was only one after survey, mounted 8 weeks after the final service changes (some 12 months after the before household survey). Source: Oxley (1982) There was no evidence to suggest that people diverted to different destinations when they did travel, however there was evidence to suggest what percentage of passengers were affected (for better or worse) by the withdrawal of the services. These figures are presented in Table 3, and it can be seen that over 50% of passengers in both Northamptonshire and Shropshire were affected for the worse. Table 3: Passengers Affected by the Bus Service Changes
*Northamptonshire Source: Oxley (1982) In terms of the age and sex of those passengers affected a number of points were highlighted, these being: 1) 22 to 44 year olds are the group most heavily affected; 2) Males are less affected than women, and; 3) The least affected are children (age 5-16, school bus provided) and surprisingly elderly males. Impacts on Supply In terms of operational costs and revenues the reduction in services resulted in considerable net financial benefits for the bus operators. These are outlined in Table 4 and range from £0.55 per passenger journey lost in Lincolnshire to £2.80 per passenger journey lost in Northamptonshire. Table 4: Financial Aspects of the Various Services
Sources: Oxley (1992) Contribution to Objectives
Appraisal Framework and Results for Testing A Regular Interval Rail Timetable (Shires et al, 2003 Context This study examined the demand and benefit implications from the introduction of a Taktfahrplan onto the east coast mainline rail route in the UK which runs from London in the South East of England to Aberdeen in the North of Scotland. The Taktfahrplan concept is frequently referred to as a regular interval timetable and is based on trains leaving stations at the same time past the hour throughout the operational day. A new cross section demand model capable of modelling access and station choice was developed to incorporate the results of a stated preference exercise which was conducted to estimate what values people placed upon such a timetable. These values were added to the more conventional elements of generalised cost to obtain the changes in demand that would result from the introduction of a Taktfahrplan, e.g. regular clock face departures such as 00, 20, 40 minutes past the hour. The model forecast the changes in patronage for the 360 O/D pairs for which CAPRI (computer analysis of passenger revenue information) data was available following the introduction of a Taktfahrplan. The forecasts were then subject to an appraisal process broadly comparable to that used by the Strategic Rail Authority (SRA). Impacts on demand The impacts on demand that resulted from the introduction of a Taktfahrplan were estimated for the 35 stations outlined in Table 5. The Taktfahrplan element of the timetable adhered to the principles of regular clock face departures in the majority of cases. This meant that departures were evenly spaced and at the same time every hour. In order to simplify the appraisal process only the top ten London routes and top ten non-London routes (ranked according to passenger flows) were chosen for a full appraisal (see table 5). Table 5: Routes Selected for Appraisal
Not only do the appraisal tables outline the annual change in rail demand for each of the flows mentioned they also calculate the impacts upon the environment, modal shift and the wider economy. In all but one of the 10 non-London flows the introduction of a Taktfahrplan results in an increase in passenger flows. Around 68% of the additional trips are assumed to come from car, 24% from bus and 8% generated. This results in a considerable improvement in environmental benefits and reduced congestion on the roads. For the non-London flows the picture is more mixed with six of the ten flows recording a reduction in passenger flows and so increases in environmental impacts and traffic congestion. The study notes that this may reflect the greater variability of existing regional flows and that the Taktfahrplan tends to reduce the number of services for certain London based flows compared with the current levels. In particular the long distance London based flows seem to be particularly adversely affected (Edinburgh and Newcastle) compared to those under 200 miles (Leeds, Doncaster and Peterborough). The picture painted by the top ten London based flows is also at odds with the overall line impacts forecast by the model for all the flows along the east coast mainline. These forecasts showed an increase in passenger flows on 76% of the London based flows and on 77% of the non-London based flows. Leading to a line impact appraisal which resulted in a £15.6 million benefit for non-London flows and a £7.2 million benefit for London flows (Table 6). Table 6: Annual Line Impact Appraisal (£s)
Impacts on Supply The impact on supply is minimal as the Taktfahrplan has been designed around the level of engines and rolling stock that currently exists. Contribution to Objectives The contribution of the Taktfahrplan to the objectives is written from the perspective of the overall line impact appraisal.
Public Transport Elasticities: Time For A Re-Think (Preston, 1998) Context Preston (1998) used evidence taken from an English Metropolitan area to estimate short and long run bus service elasticities over various time periods. The data had been collected by the area Passenger Transport Executive (PTE) using continuous on-vehicle surveys and consisted of 4 weekly bus usage data by ticket type and time of day (3,822 observations) covering the periods 1987/88 to 1992/93. Impacts on demand The estimated service elasticities are presented in Table 7. Table 7: Elasticity Estimates for Adult Bus Users in a Metropolitan Area
Source: Preston (1998) The service elasticities appear to be intuitively correct for the peaks (inelastic), and the inter-peak, which is more elastic. Early morning trips are also very inelastic, which probably reflects the dominance of work trips at that time of day. The service elasticities on Sundays and late at night are very high in the long run, however, the confidence interval around these estimates is also very large, suggesting they are unreliable.
Text edited at the Institute for
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