Institute for Transport Studies (ITS)

Motoring and vehicle Ownership Trends in the UK (MOT)

Reducing emissions from car travel by understanding car ownership patterns and the effects of policy measures.

Efforts to reduce the emissions from car travel have so far been hampered by a lack of specific information on car ownership and use. The Motoring and vehicle Ownership Trends in the UK (MOT) project seeks to address this by bringing together new sources of data to give a spatially and disaggregated diagnosis of car ownership and use in Great Britain and the associated emissions and energy demands.

Data from annual car roadworthiness tests in the UK (MOTs), made available by the Department for Transport, together with additional details of all vehicles registered from the UK Driver Vehicle Licencing Agency (DVLA) is used as a platform upon which to undertake a set of inter-linked modelling and analysis tasks using multiple sources of vehicle-specific and area-based data.

The project has developed the capability to understand spatial differences in car ownership and use, the determinants of those differences, and how levels may change over time and in response to various policy measures. The relationship between fuel use and emissions, and the demographic, economic, infrastructural and socio-cultural factors influencing these, has been tested.

Consequently, the MOT project has the potential to transform the way in which energy and emissions related to car use are quantified, understood and monitored to help refine future research and policy agendas and to inform transport and energy infrastructure planning.

The original EPSRC project (EP/K000438/1) has now been completed (March 2017). The project team are working on securing funding for follow-on work.

Project team

Professor Jillian Anable, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds (project co-ordinator)

Dr Sally Cairns, Transport Research Laboratory and University College London

Professor Eddie Wilson, Faculty of Engineering, University of Bristol

Dr Tim Chatterton, Air Quality Management Resource Centre, University of the West of England

For further information, please contact: Professor Jillian Anable

Outputs:

JOURNAL PAPERS

Chatterton, T., Anable, J., Cairns, S., Wilson, E. (2017) Financial Implications of Car Ownership and Use: A Social and Spatial Distributional Analysis. Transport Policy.

Barnes, J. and Chatterton, T. (2017) An environmental justice analysis of exposure to traffic-related pollutants in England and Wales. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 210:431-442.

Chatterton, T. and Barnes, J. (2017) A social and spatial analysis of emissions from private vehicle use in Great Britain. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 207:99-110.

Chatterton, T., Barnes, J., Anable, J., Yeboah, G. (2016) Mapping household direct energy consumption to provide a new perspective on energy justice. Energy Research and Social Science, 18:71-87.

Chatterton, T., Barnes, J., Wilson, R.E., Anable, J., Cairns, S. (2015) Use of a novel dataset to explore spatial and social variations in car type, size, usage and emissions. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 39:151-164.

Wilson, R. E., Cairns, S., Notley, S., Anable, J., Chatterton, T., & McLeod, F. (2013) Techniques for the inference of mileage rates from MOT data. Transportation Planning and Technology. 36 (1):130-143.

Wilson, R. E., Anable, J., Cairns, S., Chatterton, T., Notley, S., & Lees-Miller, J. D. (2013) On the estimation of temporal mileage rates. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 60:126-139.

CONFERENCE PAPERS (REFEREED)

Emmerson P, Anable J, Chatterton T, Cairns S, Wilson E and Ball S (2016) Analysing MOT/vehicle licensing data and transport model data to generate insights about car use and emissions in Strathclyde. Scottish Transport Applications & Research (STAR) conference, Glasgow, 18th May 2016. (*Winner of best paper award)

Chatterton, T., Barnes, J., Yeboah, G., Anable, J. (2015) Energy Justice? A spatial analysis of variations in household direct energy consumption in the UK. Paper ID: 1-159-15. European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ECEEE) 2015 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency, Club Belambra Les Criques, Presqu’île de Giens Toulon/Hyères, France, 1–6 June 2015.

Yeboah, G., Anable, J, Chatterton, T., Barnes, J., Wilson, E. R., Turnbull, O., Cairns, S. (2015) Understanding car ownership elasticities in England and Wales: Advancing the evidence base with new data sources. In: Malleson, Nick; Addis, Nicholas; Durham, Helen; Heppenstall, Alison; Lovelace, Robin; Norman, Paul; Oldroyd, Rachel (2015): GIS Research UK (GISRUK) 2015 Proceedings. pp.704-713, 2015.

Wilson, R. E., Anable, J., Cairns, S., Chatterton, T., Notley, S., & Lees-Miller, J. D. (2013) On the estimation of temporal mileage rates. 20th International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory (ISTTT 2013), Delft, Netherlands, July 17-19 2013. [Proceedings published: Procedia-Social and Behavioural Sciences, Vol. 80, pp.139-156, June 2013.]

CONFERENCE PAPERS (NOT REFEREED)

Philips, I., Anable, J., Cairns, S., Emmerson, P., Chatterton, T. (2017) A Spatial Typology of car usage and its local determinants in England. University Transport Studies Group (UTSG) 49th Annual Conference, Dublin, January 2017.

Mattioli, G., Philips, I., Anable, J. and Chatterton, T. (2017) Developing an index of vulnerability to motor fuel price increases in England. University Transport Studies Group (UTSG) 49th Annual Conference, Dublin, January 2017.

Cairns, S., Emmerson, P., Ball, S., Anable, J., Chatterton, T., Wilson, E. (2016) Using vehicle inspection data to understand personal car mileage. Association of European Transport Conference 2016, Barcelona, October 2016.

Emmerson, P., Cairns, S., Emmerson, P., Ball, S., Anable, J., Chatterton, T., Wilson, E. (2016) Using motor vehicle testing data to investigate patterns of vehicles and energy use. Association of European Transport Conference 2016, Barcelona, October 2016.

Chatterton, T., Anable, J., Cairns, S., Wilson, R.E. and Yeboah, G. (2016) Financial Implications of Car Ownership and Use: A Social and Spatial Distributional Analysis. University Transport Studies Group (UTSG) 48th Annual Conference, Bristol, January 2016.

Chatterton, T., Barnes, J., Wilson, E., Anable, J, Cairns, S. (2014) Variations in car type, size, usage and emissions across Great Britain and relationships with socio-demographic characteristics. University Transport Studies Group 44th Annual Conference, Newcastle, January 2014.

REPORTS

Cairns, S., Anable, J., Chatterton, T., Wilson, R.E. and Morton, C. (2017) MOToring along: The lives of cars seen through licensing and test data. Report for the RAC Foundation, November 2017.

Millard, K., Cairns, S., Beaumont, C., Anable, J., Chatterton, T. and Wilson, R.E. (2017)  International experience of collecting and analysing technical inspection data for private cars. Summary of survey results and research literature. TRL Report PPR847.

Cairns, S., Rahman, S., Anable, J., Chatterton, T. & Wilson, R.E. (2017) Vehicle inspections – from safety device to climate change tool . TRL Working Paper MIS018.

Emmerson, P., Cairns, S., Anable,J. & Chatterton, T. (2017) Impact of collinearity on the spatial analysis of car ownership and use. TRL Report PPR849.

Emmerson, P. and Cairns, S. (2017) Note on the use of quantile regression to analyse car ownership data .TRL Report PPR848.

Ball, S., Cairns, S., Emmerson, P., Ball, S., Anable, J., Chatterton, T., Wilson, E. (2016) Understanding variation in car use: exploration of statistical metrics at differing spatial scales using data from every private car registered in Great Britain. TRL Working Paper MIS017.

Ball, S., Cairns, S., Emmerson, P., Wilson, R.E., Anable, J., Chatterton, T. (2016) Exploring distributions of car mileages: new insights into travel patterns using data from every private car registered in Great Britain. TRL paper MIS016.

SELECTED CONFERENCE, WORKSHOP and MEETING PRESENTATIONS (included here only where there is a link to slides)

Anable, J. Sorting the Revolutions from the Hype. ACT Travelwise 'Sustainable Travel in a Changing World' conference, Birmingham, 17th January 2017.

Chatterton, T. Putting people at the heart of the air pollution problem: Developing a more social approach to emissions analysis and reduction. Centre for Transport and Society Winter Conference, Bristol, 14th December 2016.

Barnes, J., Chatterton, T., Hayes, E., Longhurst, J., Williams, B. and Prestwood, E. (2016) Beyond nudge and improving transport infrastructure: the real task of tackling poor air quality. In: Better Places Symposium, London, England, 24th November 2016.

Chatterton, T. and Parkhurst, G. The air pollution-transport divide: Why after two decades of statutory obligations is road transport derived air pollution not declining? Royal Geographical Society Annual Conference 2016, Kensington, London, 30 August 2016.

Cairns S. Encouraging direct reductions in car use. International Energy Agency workshop on Transport, energy efficiency and behaviour, Paris, 10 May 2016.

Chatterton, T. and Barnes, J. New Geographies of Energy Use and Energy Need: Mapping Household Direct Energy Consumption in the UK. Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, Chicago, April 2015.

COVERAGE IN THE POPULAR AND SCIENTIFIC PRESS

Dirty air is killing our children. Why does the government let this happen?” Article in The Guardian by George Monbiot referencing Barnes and Chatterton (2017), 29 November 2017

The UK just missed a big chance to cut harmful diesel pollution” Comment piece by T. Chatterton in New Scientist, 23 November 2017

Scrappage Scheme will get us nowhere”. Article in Fleet News based on MOT project results, 21 November 17

Academics cast new doubt on scrappage proposals” Article in ENDS Report based on MOT project results, 17 November 2017

TOXIC TORMENT: Diesel scrappage schemes ‘won’t fix pollution problem’ as it’s revealed cars owned by city drivers isn’t the issue” Article in The Sun based on MOT project results, 17 November 2017

Older cars are not main cause of poor urban air quality” Article in Transport Xtra based on MOT project results, 17 November 2017.