Institute for Transport Studies (ITS)

Modelling variation and dynamics in transportation systems

Supervisor: Professor David Watling

Topic proposals are welcomed in this general area, of which there could be many possible PhD thesis topics. These can include:

  • Development of new classes of stochastic model that are able to better reflect various aspects of real-world variations (e.g. building on Parry et al, 2014; or Nakayama & Watling, 2014).
  • Development of methods of statistical inference for stochastic network models, in order to make optimal use of existing and emerging data sources (see, for example, Sumalee et al, 2014).
  • Representing positive information and mass effects in forecasting models (e.g. as may happen through social media), for example building on Schm√∂cker et al (2014).
  • Characterising and extending classes of stochastic process model of transportation system (e.g. building on Watling & Cantarella, 2013, 2014).
  • Understanding the impact of behavioural parameters on the capacity of transportation systems, either through empirical analysis, theory or numerical analysis of ensembles of network (e.g. building on Watling et al, 2012).

Further information on all topic areas is available from the source references above. If you are unable to access copies, please email the supervisor for a copy.


Watling DP; Cantarella GE (2014) Model representation and decision-making in an ever-changing world: The role of stochastic process models of transportation systems, Networks and Spatial Economics, pp.1-40. doi: 10.1007/s11067-013-9198-2

Parry K; Watling DP; Hazelton M (2014) A New Class of Doubly Stochastic Day-to-Day Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models, EURO Journal of Transportation and Logistics, . doi: 10.1007/s13676-013-0037-x

Sumalee A; Siripirote T; Watling DP (2014) Updating of travel behavior parameters and estimation of vehicle trip-chain data based on plate scanning, Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, pp.1-54. doi: 10.1080/15472450.2013.806761

Schmöcker J-D; Hatori T; Watling D (2014) Dynamic process model of mass effects on travel demand, Transportation, 41, pp.279-304. doi: 10.1007/s11116-013-9460-y

Nakayama S; Watling D (2014) Consistent formulation of network equilibrium with stochastic flows, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 66, pp.50-69. doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2014.03.007

Watling DP; Cantarella GE (2013) Modelling sources of variation in transportation systems: Theoretical foundations of day-to-day dynamic models, Transportmetrica B, 1, pp.3-32. doi: 10.1080/21680566.2013.785372

Watling D; Milne D; Clark S (2012) Network impacts of a road capacity reduction: Empirical analysis and model predictions, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 46, pp.167-189. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2011.09.010.

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