Institute for Transport Studies (ITS)

Demand for electric and hybrid cars - modeling vehicle replacement and type choice

Supervisor: Prof. Gerard de Jong

Electric and hybrid cars could contribute substantially to the required reduction in emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. The technology to do this is there. Crucial issues for the market penetration of this new technology are:

  • How fast will consumers replace their current cars?
  • How many of the replacement cars will be electric and hybrid cars?

Behavioural data on these important issues are largely missing. This project will develop a combined revealed/stated preference household survey which includes:

  • Questions on actual attributes of he households, its persons and its cars;
  • Retrospective questions on the car ownership history of the household;
  • Stated choice experiments on car type choice, including attributes that are specially relevant for electric and hybrid cars, such as fuelling range, top speed and luggage space.

As part of this project, the questionnaire will be used to interview several hundreds of UK households. The resulting data will then be used to estimate models for:

  • The timing of vehicle replacement (hazard-based duration models or Markov models) and other changes in the household car ownership status (e.g. moving to more cars or fewer cars);
  • Vehicle type choice (discrete choice models, including mixed logit), focussing on electric and hybrid cars;
  • Vehicle use.

Finally, the estimated models will be used to carry out policy simulations, such as on the effect of measures to accelerate replacement (e.g. scrappage schemes), subsidies on the purchase of electric and hybrid cars, and emission taxes.

Suggested reading:

Jong, G.C. de (1996); A disaggregate model system of vehicle holding duration, type choice and use; Transportation Research B, 30-4, pp 263-276.

Jong. G.C. de, J. Fox, A.J. Daly, M. Pieters and R. Smit (2004); Comparison of car ownership models, Transport Reviews, 24-4, pp 379-408, 2004.

Rashidi, T.H., K. Mohammadian and F. Koppelman (2009); A dynamic hazard-based structural equations model of vehicle ownership with endogenous residential and job location changes incorporating group decision making; Paper presented at the International Choice Modelling Conference 2009, Harrogate.

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